Downgrade !!!
Moody’s non ha ancora effettuato il downgrade e già è partito il balletto di frasi sconclusionate.
Da un lato i catastrofisti per i quali siamo sull’orlo di un baratro, dall’altra I super sovranisti per i quali l’Italia è un paese solidissimo assediato da pericolosi fondamentalisti mercatilisti.
Ma qual è la verità? Bene possiamo tranquillamente dire, numeri alla mano, che la verità sta nel mezzo e che dipende da come ci vediamo.
Se la nostra idea è di essere un paese del mondo sviluppato la risposta sarà chiaramente che il paese è estremamente instabile dal punto di vista economico, in declino e destinato, a parità di ogni altra condizione, a diventare completamente ininfluente dal punto di vista geopolitico in pochi decenni.
Se la nostra idea è di essere un paese qualunque, ci accorgeremmo di essere messi molto meglio di più della metà dei paesi del mondo(casa di oltre l’ottanta per cento dei cittadini del nostro pianeta).
Questi sono fatti molto poco discutibili e ben descritti nel grafico qui sotto(elaborato da dati della banca mondiale e Bloomberg). Il grafico non si pone il problema se sia più stupido Di Maio o Toninelli, ma ci si interroga sul livello di debito comparato, di crescita, di demografa e dei loro riverberi sulla sostenibilità.
Da questo grafico si vede chiaramente come l’Italia sia lontana anni luce dai paesi a cui ci piace paragonarci ma tristemente vicini ad altri(Colombia e Arabia Saudita) dai quali ci immaginiamo lontani anni luce.
Ora, alla vigilia del possibile dowgrade, la domanda che ci poniamo in tanti è: quando arriverà il momento, per la nostra classe dirigente, di parlare dei problemi seri e del nostro declino? Siamo ancora in tempo, ma il tempo che abbiamo per invertirlo si assottiglia letteralmente di giorno in giorno… speriamo bene.
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